Automation payback math: a worked example

Every automation pitch should survive a napkin. This post shows the full arithmetic — step by step, with clearly labeled illustrative numbers — so you can run it on any project, ours or anyone's. It's the worked example behind What automation actually costs (and what it pays back).

No hype here. Just numbers you can check.

The formula

Monthly value = hours saved per month × fully loaded hourly cost Payback period = project cost ÷ monthly value

That's it. Two multiplications and a division. If a consultant's ROI story can't survive this formula, the savings aren't real.

The example

Let's say you run a 12-person field services company. Your office manager, Dana, spends a chunk of every week on job admin: copying completed jobs from the scheduling tool into QuickBooks, chasing techs for job notes, and sending follow-up emails asking for reviews.

These are illustrative numbers — plug in your own. The method is what matters.

Step 1: Count the hours (honestly)

Don't guess. Have Dana track it for two weeks. Say the log shows:

10 hours a week × 4.33 weeks/month = 43 hours/month.

Two warnings here. First, don't count hours that wouldn't actually disappear — if Dana would just fill the time with other admin, that's fine, the value is real, but be honest about it. Second, don't count the 10 minutes she spends complaining about the software. Only the work.

Step 2: Find the loaded cost

Hourly wage isn't the cost. Fully loaded cost includes taxes, insurance, benefits, equipment — everything you pay to have that person doing that job. A common shortcut: hourly wage × 1.3.

Say Dana makes $28/hr. Loaded: $28 × 1.3 = $36.40/hr. Round to $36/hr.

Step 3: Compute the monthly value

43 hours/month × $36/hr = $1,548/month.

That's the value of the problem. Not the value of the automation — the value of the problem. The automation captures some fraction of it.

Step 4: Price the fix

An automation project connects the scheduling tool to QuickBooks, pulls job notes automatically, and sends review requests when a job closes:

> job: completed → invoiced → review requested ✓ 4:02pm

Say it's a multi-system workflow at $9,000 fixed price (see the price bands). It won't capture 100% of the hours — Dana still reviews exceptions, maybe 5 hours a month of oversight. So it saves 38 of the 43 hours.

38 hours × $36/hr = $1,368/month in captured value.

Step 5: Divide

$9,000 ÷ $1,368/month = 6.6 months to payback.

After month 7, the system has paid for itself and keeps paying — $1,368/month, every month, as long as it runs. Over five years: $1,368 × 60 = $82,080 in value from a $9,000 build.

What the math doesn't include (say it out loud)

Honest arithmetic includes the caveats:

• Maintenance. Budget a little — either your time or a Care Plan ($250–500/mo) — for the day the scheduling tool changes its API. Nothing runs forever untouched.
• The ramp. Month one isn't month six. Dana needs to learn the new flow, and the system needs its first round of real-world exceptions. Discount the first two months in your head.
• Opportunity value. The formula counts Dana's hours at her loaded cost. But what does Dana do with 38 freed hours? If she takes on quoting — work that wins jobs — the real value is higher than $1,368. The formula is the floor, not the ceiling.

A second example: the after-hours lead

Same formula, different shape. Say you're a 8-person agency. Leads come in through the website at all hours, and whoever checks email first in the morning replies. You've lost jobs to competitors who answered at midnight.

Illustrative numbers again. Say you get 40 web leads a month. Your close rate on leads answered within an hour is 20%; on leads answered the next morning, 10%. Average job value: $4,000.

• Answered fast: 40 × 20% × $4,000 = $32,000/month in won work
• Answered next morning: 40 × 10% × $4,000 = $16,000/month

The gap is $16,000/month — that's the value of the problem. An AI after-hours responder (say $15,000 fixed, from the AI build band) that answers like a person and books the call:

> lead: captured → qualified → booked ✓ 11:48pm

Even if it only captures half the gap — $8,000/month — the payback is $15,000 ÷ $8,000 = under 2 months.

Notice this example isn't about hours saved at all. It's about revenue that was walking out the door. The formula still works: monthly value ÷ project cost = payback. Hours are just the most common unit. Lost revenue counts too — as long as you can show the numbers behind it. "We lose 4 leads a month to slow response" beats "faster response is better" every time.

How to spot fake math

Now you know the formula, you can audit anyone's pitch — including ours. Red flags:

• Savings with no hours. "Saves you $50,000 a year!" From where? Which hours? At what rate? No hours, no math.
• Wage instead of loaded cost — or the reverse. Either direction can inflate the number. Ask which one they used.
• 100% capture. No automation captures every hour. If the pitch assumes zero oversight, it's fantasy.
• Ignoring the payback period. Annual savings sound big. "Pays back in 7 months" is the number that tells you whether to sign.

Don't trust any savings number a consultant can't show the arithmetic for. Ask for the hours, the rate, and the payback months. If they can't produce them, the savings aren't real.

That's not a hiring problem. It's a wiring problem — and wiring problems have wiring math.

Get a free tool-stack audit

We'll run this exact math on your biggest time-waster before you spend anything — hours, loaded cost, payback months, and an honest answer about whether it clears the bar. Book a free tool-stack audit.